Occupational Projections Definitions
The base year of the forecast cycle. Base-year employment estimates are required to develop the employment projections and the base-year employment matrix.
The target, or ending, year of the forecast cycle. In order to produce target-year occupational projections, a change factor is developed and applied to each occupation. An occupational staffing pattern is then applied to the projected industry total of each occupation to give a target-year occupational projection.
The difference between the employment in the forecast year and the base year.
Numeric change divided by the base year employment. This number can be deceptive. A large percentage change does not necessarily mean a large number of jobs. For instance, if the base year for an occupation is 20 and the forecast year shows an increase of 10, it is a 50 percent increase. In reality, it is only 10 jobs.
A labor force exit occurs when a worker leaves an occupation, creating a vacancy for another worker to fill.
An occupational transfer occurs when an employee takes a job with a new employer but remains in the same occupation.
The occupational openings are the sum of the growth, exits, and transfers. The annual average is that total divided by the number of years.
The estimated total wages for an occupation divided by its weighted survey employment. It is sometimes referred to as the “weighted average.”
Alaska’s Occupational Database (ODB) uses the SOC occupational classification system. The SOC system categorizes over 800 occupations into 23 major occupational groups.